May 28, 2025

Key Takeaways Sophon positions itself as a consumer-focused Layer-2, targeting real user adoption through gaming, AI agents, and prediction markets—unlike infrastructure-heavy peers such as Starknet or Scroll. Tokenomics raise centralization concerns, with 43% of SOPH allocated to seed investors and core contributors, though mitigated by a controlled vesting schedule and ecosystem incentives. Projected FDV for SOPH at TGE ranges from $1.5B to $3B, implying a launch price of $0.15 to $0.30—aligned with Scroll and lower than Starknet. As Sophon gears up for its Token Generation Event (TGE), investor attention is sharply focused on how the project’s consumer-first Layer-2 strategy and $73 million in funding will translate into its market debut, especially when compared with peers like Starknet, Scroll, and recent Binance HODLer airdrop tokens. Overview of Sophon Sophon is an emerging Layer-2 project built on the ZK Stack – a modular blockchain development toolkit powered by zkRollup technology from zkSync. Unlike infrastructure-focused Layer-2s such as Scroll or Starknet, Sophon positions itself as a “consumer chain,” designed specifically to serve mainstream Web3 applications, including gaming, AI agents, social networks, and prediction markets. On the financial front, Sophon successfully raised $10 million in a seed round in March 2025, backed by prominent investors such as Maven11, Paper Ventures, OKX Ventures, HTX Ventures, and dao5. In addition to traditional venture fundraising, the project launched a community-driven node sale, securing an additional $63 million. This brings the total capital raised by Sophon to over $73 million – an impressive figure, particularly in a bearish market, underscoring the project’s strong appeal to both institutional investors and the broader builder community. Source: Sophon One notable drawback in SOPH’s token distribution lies in the disproportionately high allocation to internal stakeholders – with 25% allocated to the core contributors and 18% to seed investors, totaling 43% of the total supply. This raises concerns about potential centralization of control and market influence, especially in the early stages. SOPH’s tokenomics is thoughtfully designed with a long-term orientation, featuring positive elements such as a controlled release schedule, strong incentives for node operators, and a substantial reserve for ecosystem growth. However, the large allocation to seed investors and core contributors poses a significant risk that warrants close monitoring, especially if the vesting schedule is accelerated or if any changes to the release terms are made without transparent communication. User Score Market Comparison Comparing SOPH with Starknet and Scroll is appropriate, as all three projects belong to the Layer-2 ecosystem leveraging zero-knowledge (ZK) technology. SOPH vs STRK Starknet leverages zk-STARKs and its proprietary Cairo programming language, offering high speed and security at the cost of EVM incompatibility. Its parent company, StarkWare, has raised over $270 million in funding, including a $100 million Series D round at an $8 billion valuation. When Starknet launched its native token STRK on February 20, 2024, it marked several noteworthy financial milestones within the Layer-2 space. The total supply of STRK was capped at 10 billion tokens, with approximately 728 million STRK (7.28% of the supply) released into circulation at TGE through an airdrop and initial distribution. STRK debuted at around $1.90, implying a FDV of $19 billion – an exceptionally high figure relative to other Layer-2 projects at the time. On that basis, Starknet’s circulating market capitalization at launch was roughly $2.55 billion. Backed by hype and strong branding, STRK jumped to $5, with FDV hitting $50B and cap $3.6B. Source: CoinGecko However, following the initial hype, STRK experienced a sharp decline, falling below $0.20 per token. FDV now sits around $1.6B, down over 97%, showing how harshly the market corrects weak demand. In contrast, Sophon has adopted a more measured and pragmatic approach. The project raised $10M in seed funding and $63M from a node sale, avoiding inflated early valuations. The team plans to release around 20% of the total supply at launch, minimizing potential liquidity shocks. More importantly, Sophon does not rely solely on speculative narratives around new programming languages or deep technical ZK innovations. Instead, it focuses on low-cost, user-friendly tools and easy Web2 integration for broader adoption. Based on these fundamentals, Sophon’s FDV at TGE may range from $1.5B to $3B. This would put SOPH’s launch price between $0.15 and $0.30. SOPH vs SCR Scroll raised $50 million in a Series B round in March 2023, reaching a valuation of $1.8 billion. When the Scroll (SCR) token launched in October 2024, the project announced a total supply of 1 billion SCR, with approximately 190 million tokens – 19% of the supply, released into circulation at TGE. The token opened at around $1.10, giving Scroll an initial market capitalization of roughly $209 million and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of about $1.1 billion. This was seen as a cautious launch strategy, balancing token distribution with market expectations for a newly launched zkEVM Layer-2 network. Source: CoinGecko Shortly after launch, SCR dropped below $1 and eventually stabilized between $0.30 and $0.40. Its current FDV is now under $400 million. This trend illustrates two key takeaways: (1) despite a large fundraising and mainnet launch, Scroll opted for a relatively modest FDV; and (2) market demand for ZK infrastructure tokens remains exploratory and tentative. In contrast, Sophon (SOPH) represents a new direction for zk-Rollups. Rather than competing in the infrastructure arms race, Sophon aims to capture real user demand by focusing on consumer-facing verticals. If SOPH can deliver engaging dApps, such as AI agents, mini-games, and prediction markets, it may be better positioned to maintain price stability post-TGE, unlike SCR. The Scroll case highlights the importance of aligning token valuation with both growth potential and current fundamentals. For SOPH, a reasonable FDV at TGE would range between $1.5 billion and $3.0 billion, implying a token price of $0.15 to $0.30. This places SOPH in a neutral valuation zone: higher than Scroll due to its consumer-centric narrative, but far more conservative than Starknet, whose initial $35 billion FDV proved unsustainable in the face of real market scrutiny. User Score Comparison with Recent Binance Hodlers Airdrop Projects Below is a comparison of SOPH with several recent token projects that adopted the airdrop mechanism for BNB holders (HODLers): Nexpace (NXPC), Sign (SIGN), Hyperlane (HYPER), StakeStone (STO), and Haedal (HAEDAL). These projects feature large total token supplies and launched via Binance’s HODLer Airdrop program. Nexpace (NXPC): A token within the MapleStory (Avalanche) gaming ecosystem. Circulating supply at listing was ~169 million out of 1 billion (16.9%). Initial listing price was ~$3.03, equivalent to ~$3.0 billion FDV; ATH price reached ~$3.70 (FDV ~$3.7 billion). Hyperlane (HYPER): A permissionless cross-chain messaging protocol. Listed at $0.27, FDV around ~$280 million; ATH price $0.35 (FDV ~$350 million). StakeStone (STO): Total supply of 1 billion. Initial circulating supply ~225.3 million (22.5%). Listed around $0.12 (FDV ~$190 million); ATH $0.215 (FDV ~$210 million). Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL): Total supply of 1 billion. Listed at $0.17 (FDV ~$170 million); ATH $0.213 (FDV ~$210 million). Sign (SIGN): Total supply of 10 billion, initial circulating supply ~1.2 billion. Listed at ~$0.08 (FDV ~$0.8 billion); ATH price $0.127 (FDV ~$1.27 billion). In general, these airdropped tokens had an FDV at TGE usually below $1 billion, in some cases only a few hundred million USD, due to large total supply and low initial circulation. Their ATH prices were usually 1–3x the listing price, with FDVs peaking below ~$3–4B, except NXPC. Compared to those projects, SOPH’s projected multi-billion FDV fits well within the expected range. With a total supply of 10 billion, SOPH’s token price would likely be in the tens of cents. With an FDV of $2–3B, the team targets a SOPH launch price between $0.20 and $0.30. SOPH Price Prediction: Pre-TGE Drawing from these comparables, a conservative SOPH TGE price might be ~$0.10–0.20 (FDV $1–2 B), with an optimistic upper bound near $0.30 (FDV $3 B) if market conditions are very bullish. This range aligns with Layer-2 peers and modestly below Starknet’s extreme valuation. In all cases, FDV at launch is a key reference point, and SOPH’s strongest comps (Scroll, Manta) suggest a mid-single- to low-double-digit cent price under normal market conditions.