AI continues to dominate, capturing 50% of venture investment. At the same time, investors are doubling down on hard tech — hardware-focused and capital-intensive technology — driven by surging energy demands from AI, advancements in robotics, and growing defense interest.

Below, we break down the top stories from this quarter’s report, including:

• Funding tops $90B for the third straight quarter, while deal count declines
• Hard tech claims 6 of the top 10 largest deals
• AI companies command funding premiums across sectors
• Regulatory shifts push big tech from M&A to minority investments
• CVC deals hit a 7-year low as the tariff threat looms

We also outline the categories shaping venture dealmaking for the rest of 2025 — including stablecoins, defense tech, quantum, and nuclear energy.

Let’s dive in.

Download the full report to access comprehensive data and charts on the evolving state of venture across sectors, geographies, and more.

Top stories in Q1’25

1. Funding tops $90B for the third straight quarter, while deal count declines

Venture funding reached $94.6B in Q2’25, marking the second-highest quarterly figure since Q2’22 and the third straight quarter to surpass $90B.

While funding dipped slightly from Q1’25, the decline reflects normalization after OpenAI’s $40B raise inflated numbers in Q1. In fact, Q2 remained elevated even as foundation model developers accounted for just 3% of total capital, down from 36% in Q1’25 and 29% in Q4’24. This shift signals a broadening of venture activity beyond foundation models into the broader AI ecosystem and adjacent hard tech sectors.

With this continued momentum, annual funding is projected to reach nearly $440B, a 53% increase from 2024, pointing to a sustained recovery in venture investment.

At the same time, deal volume continues to decline, reflecting greater investor selectivity. Q2 saw just 6,028 deals — the lowest quarterly total since Q4’16. This puts 2025 on pace for around 25,000 deals, or nearly half the volume seen in 2022, even as total funding approaches similar levels.

While investors are pulling back on the number of deals, they’re deploying more capital per investment: the median deal size hit a new high of $3.5M in 2025 YTD. Rising check sizes and falling deal count underscore a shift toward fewer, higher-conviction bets.

2. Hard tech claims 6 of the top 10 largest deals

Six of the 10 largest deals in Q2’25 went to hard tech companies, which are firms building capital-intensive physical products.

This surge is driven by macro forces such as onshoring initiatives, clean energy investment, and the rise of physical AI, which is enabling new capabilities across robotics, autonomy, and industrial systems.

Mega-rounds ($100M+ deals) spanned multiple sectors:

• Montera Infrastructure: $1.5B for hyperscale data center solutions
• Commonwealth Fusion Systems: $800M for commercial nuclear fusion
• Neuralink: $650M for brain-computer interfaces

Geopolitical tensions are also pushing capital toward defense, where startups are securing large rounds:

• World View: $2.6B for high-altitude aerospace platforms
• Anduril: $2.5B for autonomous defense systems and defense connectivity platforms
• Helsing: $693M for AI-powered defense applications

Across the board, defense tech startups are now commanding a median revenue multiple of 17.4x, edging out AI companies at 17.1x and all other major sectors. This signals high investor confidence and competition, driving premium valuations across the defense tech sector.

With investor appetite moving toward physical infrastructure and embodied AI, the rise of hard tech represents a shift likely to define the next chapter of venture investing.

3. AI companies command funding premiums across sectors

The venture market is experiencing a pronounced “AI premium,” with median deal size for AI companies reaching $4.6M in 2025 — over $1M more than the broader market. 

But the premium isn’t just financial. AI companies also score higher on CB Insights’ Mosaic Score (success probability) and Commercial Maturity (ability to compete and partner) across most sectors, signaling stronger fundamentals and market readiness in the eyes of investors.

AI companies in auto tech — with most focused on autonomous driving — are commanding the highest premium. Their median deal size is $20.6M higher than non-AI auto tech peers, and their average Mosaic score is 99 points greater. This quarter, the largest AI auto tech deal went to Applied Intuition, which raised a $600M Series F round at a $15B valuation.

Robotics and cybersecurity follow closely, with AI firms in those sectors securing median deal sizes $10.7M and $6.4M larger than their non-AI peers.

Team pedigree is further amplifying the premium. Thinking Machines Lab — founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati alongside veterans from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Mistral AI — raised a record-breaking $2B seed round at a $10B valuation, making it the most valuable seed-stage startup ever. 

The deal reflects an increasingly common “go big or go home” investing mentality, as investors make outsized bets on high-credibility AI teams.

4. Regulatory shifts push big tech from M&A to minority investments

Big tech M&A — which includes M&A from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia — is entering a sustained downturn. Annual deal activity is projected to hit just 12 transactions in 2025, a steady decline from 66 deals in 2014. 

US regulatory tightening caused M&A activity to collapse from 30+ deals in 2022 to just 8 deals in 2023 — the steepest single-year decline on record.

Big tech companies are adapting by taking large minority stakes, allowing them to circumvent federal antitrust review while still gaining strategic influence and access to key technologies. For example, Meta invested $14.8B in Scale — the largest funding round of Q2’25 — for a 49% stake, as did Microsoft with its recent investments in OpenAI. 

In 2025 YTD, big tech is on pace for 14 corporate minority deals, an increase from levels before the regulatory shift.

Big tech’s shift reflects broader M&A weakness across the market. Global activity has fallen 34% from 3,103 deals in Q1’22 to 2,053 deals in Q2’25, driven by high interest rates that have made financing more expensive and economic uncertainty that has made companies more cautious about acquisitions.

However, acquisitions of AI companies is one area where M&A is increasing. Activity reached record levels in Q2’25 at 177 deals — over double the 5-year quarterly average of 84 deals. This surge reflects companies’ need to acquire AI capabilities quickly rather than build them internally, as AI becomes essential for staying competitive.

While falling interest rates will help smaller deals rebound and provide a modest tailwind to overall M&A activity, we do not expect deal volumes to approach peak years. Big tech and other large corporations will remain constrained by regulatory scrutiny.

We are likely entering a new era where strategic partnerships and minority investments replace traditional M&A as a growth mechanism for major corporations.

5. CVC deals hit a 7-year low as the tariff threat looms

Corporate venture capital dealmaking has reached its lowest point in over 7 years, as CVC-backed investment totaled just $17B across 742 deals, down 8% quarter-over-quarter and representing the weakest performance since Q1’18.

CVC activity has fallen dramatically from its Q1’22 peak due to broader market pressures, including high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Tariff concerns are likely adding further burden to an already weakened market.

Despite fewer deals, median CVC-backed deal sizes have reached their highest levels since 2021. This suggests that CVCs are concentrating capital on fewer, higher-conviction investments.

CVCs are also collaborating more frequently. Deals involving 3+ CVCs reached a record high of 32% in Q2’25, reflecting both strategic necessity and market conditions: larger funding rounds in capital-intensive sectors like AI and hard tech may require multiple corporate partners to provide sufficient capital. At the same time, competition for access to the hottest technologies drives CVCs to team up rather than risk being shut out.

Breakout sectors of 2025

Below, we analyze venture funding across tech sectors to identify where investor conviction and market momentum are strongest.

Stablecoin funding is on pace to shatter its previous record

Stablecoin startups are experiencing an explosive year-over-year funding surge as stablecoins achieve mainstream adoption. Funding is projected to reach $10.2B in 2025, representing more than 10x growth from 2024.

Growing regulatory frameworks worldwide — such as the pending passage of stablecoin legislation in the US with bipartisan support — provide needed certainty for institutional investment, setting the foundation for exponential growth.

Multiple startups are taking advantage of the momentum. While the largest funding rounds occurred during the first quarter — with $2B deals for Avalon Labs and Binance — notable rounds also occurred during Q2’25, including:

• Flowdesk: $100M for digital asset trading and liquidity services
• Conduit: $36M for its cross-border business transactions platform
• Niural: $31M for an AI-enabled stablecoin and fiat payroll platform

Major financial services companies are also increasingly involved. Mastercard, Visa, and established banks are now enabling stablecoin transactions and issuing their own digital currencies, bringing institutional credibility to the space. Meanwhile, stablecoin issuers Circle and Ripple applied for banking licenses on June 30 and July 2, respectively, demonstrating their intent to operate like mainstream financial institutions.

Stablecoins are evolving beyond simple stores of value into yield-bearing tools and liquidity products. Solutions like liquidity mining, lending services, and yield-bearing stablecoins are receiving substantial investor attention. Cross-border payments companies powered by stablecoins are also gaining traction as affordable and accessible USD alternatives in emerging markets.

As regulatory frameworks solidify and institutional adoption accelerates, stablecoin companies are positioned to capture significant market share in global payments and financial infrastructure markets.

Defense tech momentum continues

Within the first two quarters of 2025, defense tech funding has already reached a new annual record of $11.1B.

The funding breakout is driven by multiple forces, including geopolitical instability and technology advancements, notably in drones and other unmanned vehicles.

Concurrently, the US Department of Defense is pushing to diversify the defense ecosystem through public-private partnerships and startup support.

The defense investor landscape is also rapidly evolving, with the number of unique investors in the space expected to increase 34% in 2025 to 950 from 710 the year prior. Traditional defense funds like Shield Capital and In-Q-Tel are now joined by generalist VCs, bringing more capital to fund a new generation of startups.

We expect continued investor interest in defense tech, as NATO recently agreed to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, adding over $400B annually in market expansion. The 1.5% earmarked for security infrastructure aligns with venture trends in AI, cybersecurity, robotics, and technologies developed for both military and civilian use cases.

Quantum tech reaches an all-time high, halfway through the year

Quantum tech is attracting significant investor interest, reaching record annual funding levels at $2.2B within the first two quarters of 2025 — an increase of 69% from 2024.

The surge follows major hardware breakthroughs from Google, IBM, and Microsoft, which may drive confidence in leading startups even though the technology still lacks practical applications that outperform classical systems. Industry leaders like Fujitsu and Quantinuum — a subsidiary of Honeywell — expect fault-tolerant quantum computers by 2030 at the earliest.

Massive investments are flowing towards various quantum applications in 2025 so far:

• PsiQuantum: $750M to build million-qubit photonic quantum computers by 2029
• QuEra Computing: $230M to accelerate fault-tolerant neutral-atom quantum systems
• Multiverse Computing: $215M to scale its quantum-inspired AI compression technology

Government support has also increased, with $1.8B in public funding announced globally in 2024. For example, Australia committed $620M to PsiQuantum, while DARPA committed up to $200M in joint funding to assess the feasibility of industrially useful quantum computers.

As quantum technologies move toward commercial viability, the combination of record private investment, substantial government backing, and technical progress positions the industry for significant growth once practical quantum advantage is achieved in commercial applications.

Corporate interest drives a surge in nuclear energy funding

Funding to nuclear energy companies is projected to reach an annual record by the end of 2025 at $5B. Massive energy requirements for AI data centers — with US data center power consumption projected to triple by 2030 — are driving corporate interest in clean baseload power.

Big tech companies are leading the charge, with investments since 2024 across both small modular reactors (SMRs) and fusion technologies:

• Amazon invested in X-energy with plans to develop over 5 GW of SMR projects by 2039; Amazon also backed Realta Fusion
• Google reached agreements with Kairos Power for up to 500 MW of nuclear power by 2030; Google Ventures also invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems and TAE Technologies.
• Microsoft reached a deal with Constellation Energy to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, while committing to purchasing fusion electricity from Helion Energy by 2028

Corporate interest has also skyrocketed, with earnings call mentions hitting record levels as executives grapple with the major power requirements for AI infrastructure.

Current and previous presidential administrations have reduced regulatory red tape for nuclear development, streamlining approval processes. The bipartisan approach creates stable regulatory support for long-term investments and should accelerate sector growth in the coming years.

As AI adoption continues, nuclear provides the only scalable solution for clean baseload power that intermittent renewables cannot match for always-on AI computing infrastructure. The combination of massive corporate demand and supportive regulatory frameworks positions nuclear for explosive growth in the years ahead.

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RELATED RESOURCES FROM CB INSIGHTS:

• State of Venture Q1’25 Report
• The AI agent market map
• 7 tech M&A predictions for 2025
• State of AI Report: 6 trends shaping the landscape in 2025
• 15 tech trends to watch closely in 2025

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By combining AI with physical dexterity, humanoids can perform complex tasks once limited to people, without the expensive facility modifications that traditional automation requires.

While manufacturing and warehousing use cases lead in early adoption, humanoids are expanding into healthcare, retail, and hospitality sectors, signaling widespread potential in industries that need human-like movement and flexibility.

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The humanoid robots market map

Now, our Book of Scouting Reports offers in-depth analysis on every single one of the private companies featured in the market map.

Combining CB Insights’ proprietary data and AI, scouting reports provide insight into each company’s:

• Funding history
• Headcount
• Key takeaways (including opportunities and threats)
• Commercial Maturity score
• Mosaic score

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After generative AI transformed content creation with large language models and AI agents enabled autonomous decision-making with predictive systems across enterprises and industrial applications, humanoid robots represent the next frontier as the embodiment of physical AI.

The humanoid market secured a record $1.2B in funding in 2024 and is projected to reach $2.3B in 2025, according to CB Insights data.

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A key factor in the slowdown was a sharp drop in funding from mega-rounds ($100M+ deals), which dropped 47% year-over-year (YoY) in 2024. This coincided with high-profile bankruptcies of established climate tech startups like battery manufacturer Northvolt.

However, this turbulence wasn’t limited to the private markets — public players like Lilium and Arrival also filed for insolvency/bankruptcy over the period, highlighting the commercialization challenges facing capital-intensive industries like climate tech.

Download the full report to access comprehensive data and charts on the evolving state of climate tech across sectors, geographies, and more.

Key takeaways from the report include:

• Climate tech investment activity continues to contract. Global climate tech funding fell for the second year straight in 2024, dropping by 40% YoY, with mega-round funding falling by 47%. However, the space still saw notable mega-rounds. This included deals to players modernizing the power grid, drawing participation from tech giants racing to secure clean energy for computing infrastructure.
• Grid tech and nuclear are gaining momentum to meet AI’s energy needs. Within climate tech, markets targeting the grid and power generation show the strongest growth potential, according to CB Insights Mosaic startup health scores. This momentum is driven in part by the massive energy demands (and expected continued demand) of AI data centers.
• Electric vehicle technology sees record pullback in deals. After years of steady growth, electric vehicle (EV) tech deal activity plunged 61% YoY in 2024 — its steepest decline on record. This points to broader challenges in the sector, like lower consumer demand for EVs and increased capital costs for scaling manufacturing operations.
• Climate tech M&A exits decline once again. Climate tech M&A exits dropped by 25% YoY to hit 284, the lowest count since 2020. At the quarterly level, M&A exits steadily declined over the course of 2024, falling from 104 in Q1’24 to 39 in Q4’24. Growing skepticism around environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives could be a contributing factor.

We dive into the trends below.

Climate tech investment activity continues to contract

Global climate tech funding dropped for a second consecutive year in 2024. It fell by 40% YoY, with mega-round funding falling by 47% over the same period.

The funding slowdown played out differently across the globe. US climate tech showed resilience YoY with relatively steady funding despite fewer deals. Meanwhile, other countries saw steep declines in climate tech dollars, with China experiencing the sharpest drop (-66% YoY).

Amid the overall funding decline, climate tech still saw several notable mega-rounds. This included deals in Q4’24 for companies modernizing the power grid:

• Crusoe secured $600M at a $2.8B valuation to support its efforts to use waste natural gas to power large-scale data centers
• X-energy received $500M as it works to build small modular reactors (SMRs) capable of generating more than 5 gigawatts of electricity by 2039
• Form Energy secured $405M to accelerate production of its iron-air batteries capable of 100-hour energy storage

Notably, some of these deals drew participation from big tech companies racing to secure clean energy for computing infrastructure. For example, Amazon (via the Climate Pledge Fund) invested in X-energy’s nuclear development, and Nvidia invested in Crusoe’s sustainable computing infrastructure, reflecting big tech’s interest in solutions that can help meet rising AI data center demands.

Grid tech and nuclear are gaining momentum to meet AI’s energy needs

Comparing median CB Insights Mosaic scores (a measure of private tech company health and growth potential on a 0–1,000 scale) for climate tech companies that raised equity funding in 2024 reveals the most promising markets in climate tech.

Grid tech and nuclear markets — covering technologies directly integrated into and operated by utilities to enhance power system reliability, flexibility, and clean energy integration — dominate the top 10 climate tech markets by median Mosaic score, highlighting their growth potential.

Surging energy demand from AI data centers is in part responsible for these markets’ momentum. For example, nuclear fusion and small modular reactors could provide continuous clean power generation, grid storage enables reliable renewable energy delivery, and virtual power plants help optimize massive power loads.

See 100+ high-potential climate tech companies

Electric vehicle technology sees record pullback in deals

Electric vehicle tech deals experienced their steepest decline on record in 2024, with deal count plunging 61% YoY to 243.

High-profile bankruptcies underscored the sector’s capital-intensive manufacturing challenges in 2024. Battery manufacturer Northvolt filed for bankruptcy a year after raising $1.2B, as it struggled to scale production efficiently. Electric van maker Arrival — which went public in 2021 at a $13B valuation — also filed for bankruptcy last year amid mounting production costs and the inability to raise funding.

Even the auto industry’s most prominent EV champions scaled back their electric ambitions throughout the year:

• GM delayed its Orion Assembly EV truck plant by 6 months and cut 2024 EV targets by 17%
• Toyota postponed US EV production to 2026
• Ford canceled plans to produce an all-electric three-row SUV, pivoting to a hybrid approach instead
• Volvo dropped its 2030 all-electric goal

Climate tech M&A exits decline once again

In 2024, climate tech M&A exits fell by 25% YoY to hit 284 — the lowest count since 2020.

At the quarterly level, M&A exits steadily declined over the course of 2024, falling from 104 in Q1’24 to 39 in Q4’24.

The decline in M&A activity coincided with key changes in market conditions, including the rise of economic headwinds, political uncertainty, and growing skepticism around environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives.

For example, ESG tech markets collectively saw equity funding decline 54% YoY in 2024. On the corporate side, mentions of ESG in earnings calls have trended down since peaking in Q1’22.

As skepticism toward ESG initiatives grows, some companies appear to be placing lower priority on climate tech acquisitions that were previously considered strategic imperatives.

See recently funded climate tech companies with high M&A probabilities

MORE CLIMATE TECH RESEARCH FROM CB INSIGHTS

• Data centers are reshaping nuclear development, driving billions in new power infrastructure investment
• Why fleet management leaders are racing to acquire next-gen telematics capabilities — and which M&A targets could be next
• The AI data center value chain: 12 high-momentum technologies powering the future of AI
• The top 25 utility companies by AI readiness
• Big Tech in Energy: How Amazon, Google, Microsoft, & Nvidia are advancing the global energy transition
• Sodium-ion batteries are poised for a breakout moment — energy players should prepare

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While AI copilots — which work alongside humans to speed up their workflows — currently comprise 90% of company activity, the tech will serve as a stepping stone to more autonomous solutions in the coming years. Eventually, AI agents could manage entire industrial processes, shifting human roles from operational tasks to strategic oversight.

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Through M&A, leaders like PowerFleet and Element Fleet Management are layering on expanded capabilities that help fleet managers optimize for elements like charging schedules, battery range, autonomous routing efficiency, and maintenance cycles.  

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The AV space has seen equity funding triple this year to $7.5B, and robotaxi services are notching notable milestones — Waymo, for instance, recently hit 150K paid rides per week, 3x the volume from just 5 months prior.

Among key growth drivers, generative AI is helping remove hurdles to widespread adoption, while the potential for regulatory pullback may attract more investors in the year to come.

Source: CB Insights — advanced search for autonomous driving company funding as of 11/13/2024.

In this brief, we highlight potential approaches to tap into the autonomous driving opportunity — including partnering with self-driving stack developers, acquiring or investing in AV assets at attractive valuations, and supplying AV makers with the necessary components to scale.

Here are 4 key takeaways from our analysis:

1. Self-driving stack developers are best positioned for partnership in autonomous driving’s second wave: Waymo and Wayve have led this year’s funding rebound (combined ~90% of equity funding this year) as they make commercial gains and inch toward profitability. Both players are leveraging genAI to improve their self-driving systems and are opportunistically targeting multiple autonomous driving use cases.
2. OEMs are keeping their loss-making self-driving units afloat with fresh capital injections: Despite facing safety issues and commercialization delays, some OEMs view autonomous driving capabilities as strategically non-negotiable, with GM and Hyundai injecting a combined $1.4B in their self-driving units this year. At the same time, they may consider welcoming new financial backers to reduce their risk — creating opportunities for other OEMs to gain exposure to the space.
3. Ride-hailing players can partner with robotaxi companies to mitigate the impact to their business model: Ride-hailing companies are pursuing multiple autonomous driving partnerships at once — Lyft and Uber, for example, have formed a combined 6 partnerships this year. In turn, robotaxi companies should target a similar multi-platform strategy to maximize market reach.
4. In China, autonomous driving players have been pushed to go public at reduced valuations: Companies like WeRide and Horizon Robotics are debuting at prices discounted by 20% or more. The pressure these companies face to demonstrate near-term results represents an opportunity for OEMs and logistics companies to negotiate advantageous terms for strategic partnerships, investments, or even acquisitions.

We dive into each point below.

Self-driving stack developers are best positioned for partnership in autonomous driving’s second wave

After a 2-year funding winter, the autonomous driving space has attracted $7.5B in equity funding so far this year, a 3x YoY increase, driven by massive rounds to self-driving stack developers like Waymo ($5.6B Series C) and Wayve ($1.1B Series C).

Source: CB Insights — advanced search for autonomous driving mega-rounds in 2024 as of 11/13/2024.

Waymo hits key commercial milestones, leading US robotaxi rollout

Waymo has been hitting significant milestones this year, tripling its number of weekly paid rides from 50K in May to 150K in October. It has emerged as a competitor to ride-hailing giants in a few US cities, although its volume pales in comparison to the ~5M weekly rides offered by the likes of Uber and Lyft in NYC alone.

Waymo has also made progress toward profitability, with Sundar Pichai, CEO of Waymo parent Alphabet, highlighting significant cost reduction during Alphabet’s Q3’24 earnings call.

This has helped give investors confidence that Waymo is well-positioned to lead the commercial rollout of robotaxis in the US. The company was valued at $45B in its latest round, up from $30B.

Source: CB Insights — Alphabet’s Q3’24 earnings call

Compare robotaxi companies to identify potential partners

GenAI increases hopes of full autonomy breakthrough

Advancements in genAI are also acting as a tailwind in the autonomous driving space, with hopes that this technology can accelerate the timeline for full autonomous driving by removing remaining hurdles — such as cost, explainability, and vehicle-passenger communication.

Both Waymo and Wayve are investing heavily in the use of genAI to improve their existing autonomous driving systems.

Wayve specifically is developing a self-learning end-to-end AI driving system similar to Tesla’s that could be used by any automaker and is financially backed by some of the biggest AI players such as Microsoft and Nvidia.

Report: How generative AI is impacting autonomous driving

Self-driving stack developers target multiple autonomous driving use cases

The ability to target multiple autonomous driving use cases is another key strength of self-driving stack developers, allowing them to opportunistically pivot to focus on the most commercially promising ones. For example:

• Waymo reined in its investments in trucking use cases back in July 2023 to instead focus on robotaxis, where it saw more near-term commercial momentum. The company is now considering expanding into the personal car use case by licensing its technology.
• Wayve formed early partnerships with UK grocery retailers ASDA and Ocado, focused on home delivery of groceries. The company is now pushing deeper into robotaxis, partnering with Uber to roll out self-driving vehicles on the ride-hailing giant’s platform in the future.

Traction in the robotaxi space is driving other players to reconsider their AV strategy. For example, Elon Musk has increasingly framed Tesla as a robotaxi company — although the timing of the Tesla Cybercab launch remains uncertain.

Demonstrating a path to profitability will be key for robotaxi companies — including Waymo — to justify their outsized funding rounds, creating opportunities for OEMs and mobility players to help them scale or monetize their technology through licensing.

Their success also hinges on more municipalities and countries authorizing their operations, something that’s likely to take time unless regulations become less restrictive.

OEMs are keeping their loss-making self-driving units afloat with fresh capital injections

Despite mounting challenges such as safety issues and delayed commercialization, major OEMs such as General Motors (GM) and Hyundai have recalibrated their autonomous driving strategies while continuing to finance their subsidiary operations.

The sustained funding from OEMs amid setbacks reflects several strategic imperatives. For one, they’re still banking on the potential for returns on their significant existing investments, while also looking to position themselves competitively against tech-native OEMs such as Tesla and BYD.

Perhaps more importantly, it allows them to not miss out on the growth of the robotaxi industry by serving as suppliers of choice for vehicles and AV hardware — without bearing the full cost of software development. For example, Hyundai partnered with Waymo earlier this year to provide the robotaxi company with a fleet of vehicles equipped with autonomous tech.

Source: CB Insights — advanced search for corporate majority rounds in autonomous driving companies as of 11/13/2024.

GM provided its robotaxi unit Cruise an $850M lifeline despite safety incidents that forced the company to pause its service back in October 2023. The funding aims to bridge Cruise as it relaunches its service in select US cities, with the intent to charge for rides at the beginning of 2025.

Hyundai invested nearly $1B — including a $475M fresh capital injection — to gain 85% control of Motional, an autonomous driving JV between Hyundai and Aptiv. Aptiv’s stake reduction in the JV followed a strategic decision to cease further investment due to delayed commercialization.

Given the market pressures and challenges these units have faced, other OEMs may have an opportunity to gain exposure to the autonomous driving space by partnering with or investing in these units on favorable terms rather than trying to build the technology themselves. 

Ride-hailing players can partner with robotaxi companies to mitigate the impact to their business model

The ride-hailing industry is undergoing a major shift as platforms rush to integrate AVs into their networks.

While these partnerships offer compelling near-term advantages, they also highlight the existential challenges facing traditional ride-hail business models in an autonomous future.

Source: CB Insights — business relationship data for Uber and Lyft as of 11/13/2024

Leading platforms such as Uber and Lyft — which sold their autonomous driving units in 2020 and 2021, respectively — are pursuing multiple parallel relationships with autonomous driving developers, suggesting both urgency and hedging strategies.

Between the two, Uber is currently leading the way with 5 partnerships since 2023, 4 of which have been signed since August this year. In September, the company announced an expansion of its partnership with Waymo, giving access to Waymo’s robotaxi through the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta (starting in 2025) in addition to Phoenix, where Uber users have been able to order a Waymo since October 2023.

These partnerships offer immediate operational benefits: reduced driver costs, improved service reliability, and the ability to better manage surge pricing.

However, they also expose how the current ride-hailing platform model faces disruption — that is, by helping autonomous driving companies build direct relationships with consumers and gain real-world miles to improve their autonomous operations. This creates a paradox where ride-hail companies are essentially helping to incubate their potential future competitors.

Looking forward, ride-hail companies face 3 distinct strategic paths:

• Partnership strategy: betting on becoming the dominant platform layer atop multiple autonomous driving systems providers
• Acquisition strategy: buying autonomous driving capabilities to maintain control of the full stack
• Potential acquisition target: positioning themselves to be acquired by autonomous driving companies seeking customer relationships and operational expertise

The choice between these paths will likely determine which companies survive the transition to autonomous mobility. 

Report: How Uber is redefining its core businesses in the age of autonomy

In China, autonomous driving players have been pushed to go public at reduced valuations

China is also seeing heightened activity in the autonomous driving space this year, including growing adoption of robotaxis. Baidu‘s Apollo Go service, for instance, averaged 75K fully driverless rides per week in Q2’24, up 26% YoY.

Chinese autonomous driving companies are also leading an exit wave through public listings, with Horizon Robotics and WeRide going public in October and Pony.ai, Momenta, and Minieye all recently filing to do the same. But they’re doing so at a discount to their last private valuations, reflecting limited access to private capital at a time of accelerating commercialization. 

Source: CB Insights — advanced search for autonomous driving exits over time as of 11/13/2024 (excludes corporate majority deals)

Both Horizon Robotics and WeRide completed their IPOs at a more than 20% discount to their last private valuations, while Pony.ai is reportedly seeking a $4.6B IPO valuation, down from $8.6B just a year ago.

Private funding for China-based autonomous driving companies has dropped 90% since 2021, from $4B to less than $400M in 2024 YTD. The funding drought is pushing many of these companies to secure public funding or risk falling behind in the capital-intensive race to autonomy.

This funding crunch comes at a particularly critical time, as many players are accelerating their commercialization efforts and require capital to scale operations. As newly public companies face greater scrutiny over quarterly performance and profitability, they’re likely to prioritize near-term revenue generation over long-term technological development. 

For transportation and mobility companies looking to expand in China, this creates opportunities to partner on advantageous terms with local players that need to show commercial progress.

This shift will also create an opening for well-funded private players like Waymo, which can maintain their focus on achieving full autonomy without the pressures of public market expectations. 

Finally, the need for operational efficiency is likely to drive consolidation within the industry, as public companies seek cost synergies and combined market power to improve their financial metrics.

Identify likely autonomous driving acquisition targets

Looking ahead

Robotaxi adoption and genAI integration are already driving the next phase of the autonomous driving market’s evolution, pushing mobility players and OEMs to reassess their strategies after some had reduced their exposure to the space.

Although the success of robotaxi operations hinges on gaining regulatory approval in many more cities — which, in the US, may be accelerated under the incoming administration — expect to see a flurry of partnerships and strategic investments as automakers, autonomous driving hardware suppliers, and mobility platforms all vie to help robotaxi companies scale and get a share of the market.

As leaders such as Waymo race ahead, emerging autonomous driving companies will have to choose between accelerating the commercialization of their existing solutions or trying to outcompete winners on technological advancements (e.g., full driving autonomy, significantly cheaper autonomous driving systems, etc.).

Either strategy will likely require pooling resources, leading to consolidation in the space.

MORE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE RESEARCH FROM CB INSIGHTS:

• Generative AI is accelerating the timeline for fully autonomous driving
• Autonomous driving systems market report
• Uber’s AV strategy: How the rideshare giant is redefining its core businesses in the age of autonomy
• Robotaxi market report

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By 2029, SDVs could account for as much as 90% of auto production, up from just 3% in 2021, per Morgan Stanley. However, the transition comes with steep challenges, such as the technical complexity involved and the need for strong cybersecurity measures to protect connected vehicles.

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Despite the declines, global regions like the US and Europe have made gains in median deal sizes this year, and both the US and EU continue to provide government grants and loans to climate tech solutions. China, on the other hand, has rolled back some of its clean energy subsidies, and VC enthusiasm has waned in the country this year.

Globally, governments are focusing more on early-stage technologies that are ready for commercialization. Two prime examples in the US are nuclear fusion energy and direct air capture of CO2, both of which have received substantial funding from the US Department of Energy this year.

Download the full report to access comprehensive data and charts on the evolving state of climate tech across sectors, geographies, and more.

Below, we cover key shifts in Q3’24.

• Climate tech funding falls to $4.8B in Q3’24, marking the lowest point since Q2’20. Venture capital has shifted away from the sector as high interest rates impact climate tech’s capital-intensive projects and as investors pivot toward AI, which tends to feature more rapid developments and shorter commercialization timelines.

• M&A activity drops dramatically in Q3’24, with only 43 deals completed — a more than 50% decline from the previous quarter. While notable exits like Kyte Powertech ($277M valuation) and SRE Power ($72M) suggest a steady appetite for grid infrastructure solutions, the overall slowdown signals a more selective M&A environment, potentially limiting exit opportunities for highly valued climate tech companies.

• US and European deal sizes show resilience despite the slowdown in global funding. In the US, the median deal size has reached $6M in 2024 YTD (up from $4.3M in 2023), while Europe’s median deal size has grown to $4.9M (up from $3.7M in 2023), indicating sustained investor confidence in these markets.

• Despite declines in overall climate tech funding, companies commercializing solutions in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) continue to secure significant capital, as demonstrated by Twelve‘s $200M Series C round in September. Twelve is using the funding to finish building its Washington state facility, where it will produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that it claims can deliver up to 90% emissions reduction compared to conventional jet fuel.

Source: CB Insights — Twelve Funding Insights

• Electric vehicle technology funding reaches a critical low of $0.6B in Q3’24, marking its lowest point since early 2020. However, the sector still attracted notable deals, including 24M Technologies‘ $87M Series H round at a $1.3B valuation, pointing to selective investor appetite for more mature EV tech companies.

More energy resources from CB insights:

• 5 climate tech markets gaining momentum in 2024
• The grid tech market map: The companies tackling the growing need for reliable electricity
• The energy impact of generative AI: 3 technologies transforming the future of data centers
• Analyzing 15 oil & gas leaders’ tech priorities: Here’s where incumbents are buying, investing, and partnering
• Sodium-ion batteries are poised for a breakout moment — energy players should prepare
• Why energy giants should have green ammonia on their radar

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What you need to know:

• Autonomous vehicle (AV) systems providers are using genAI to boost in-car voice assistant capabilities, reduce training costs, and improve safety and transparency.

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While it sold its autonomous vehicle (AV) unit (ATG) in 2020, the now-profitable company is leveraging its 2.8B quarterly trips and global reach to attract AV partnerships that could reduce costs long-term across its rideshare, delivery, and freight business lines.

For transportation and logistics executives, Uber’s recent activity signals a shift in the mobility landscape, highlighting the importance of diverse AV partnerships to hedge against tech and regulatory uncertainties while capturing early market share.

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Essential resources to understand the future of automotive, supply chain, & aerospace tech:

• How AI is reshaping the auto industry — A look at 15 high-momentum technologies across the automotive value chain.

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However, semiconductor manufacturing is immensely complex, extending across a vast value chain from the production of ultra-high-purity raw materials to chip design, assembly, and testing.

This complexity, coupled with geopolitical tensions, has made semiconductor manufacturing a focal point for national security and economic policy. Governments and industry leaders are racing to build more resilient supply chains to support critical technologies like high-performance computing and defense systems.

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What you need to know:

• While the micromobility market has been tumultuous, continued demand from consumers is incentivizing players working to figure out a profitable solution. 
• The maintenance and charging of electric batteries have been a common pain point for various business models, but new solutions are emerging. 
• B2B players are entering the market to serve last-mile logistics and sustainability goals.
  

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Micromobility is not an easy business — just look at the plight of electric scooter pioneer Bird, a former VC darling. Demand is not the issue, making money is.

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These tech leaders are collaborating with energy incumbents and startups alike to tap into renewable energy sources and decarbonize their operations.

While these big tech players are competing in the energy space, they are also developing unique strategies:

• Amazon is working to decarbonize its transportation and fulfillment center operations, with a focus on hydrogen tech.
• Google is pioneering new models for clean energy procurement as it works to boost the sustainability of its data center network.
• Microsoft is focusing on renewable energy sources — like solar and fusion — and carbon capture technologies to meet the growing energy demands of its AI-driven operations.
• Nvidia is enhancing data center energy efficiency and investing in the development of a green and reliable power grid.

This report uses CB Insights datasets like investments, acquisitions, business relationships, company scouting reports, earnings transcripts, and more. Learn more about our data here.

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What you need to know:

• Companies like Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Lilium, and Volocopter are nearing eVTOL commercialization, with plans to launch air taxi services as soon as 2025, pending regulatory approvals.

• Regulatory hurdles, infrastructure requirements, and battery efficiency are key challenges that need to be addressed before eVTOLs can become a widespread mode of transportation.

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In 2024 so far, a16z has backed more than 20 AI startups working within disruptive categories. For example, this year, it has invested in several AI-driven copilots and agents designed to automate key workflows in big industries like healthcare and finance. It has also turned its attention to multimedia generation startups expediting the creation of a wide variety of content, from images to videos to audio.

While championing AI’s advancement, the firm also acknowledges associated risks — its founders are proponents of open-source models, arguing that their transparency and accessibility will help ensure that AI is developed in a secure and ethical way. So far this year, the two largest a16z-backed AI deals have gone to open-source large language model (LLM) developers xAI and Mistral AI.

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It’s estimated that robots and other smart machinery will make up as much as one-third of US military presence in the next 15 years, according to Mark Milley, a retired US Army General and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Unmanned systems already dominate in some areas — like aerial drones — while significant development is underway in bringing autonomous tech to the ground, ocean surface, and underwater domains.

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Amid the funding decline, investors are favoring smaller mid- and late-stage deals. However, they are still willing to place early-stage bets where they see strong opportunities.

Based on our deep dive in the full report, here is the TL;DR on the state of climate tech:

• • Global climate tech funding declines by 20% QoQ to $4.9B in Q2’24 — the lowest quarterly total since Q2’20. While deal count rebounded QoQ to 397 in Q2, it still came in well below 2023’s quarterly totals.

• • Climate tech doesn’t see any unicorn births (private companies reaching $1B+ valuations) in Q2’24, marking climate tech’s second straight quarter without any new unicorns. This coincides with a decline in late-stage deal sizes — the median deal size at that stage is $38M in 2024 YTD, down 16% vs. full-year 2023.

• • Late-stage deal sizes decline, while early-stage sizes show strength. The median late-stage deal size is $38M in 2024 YTD — down 16% from full-year 2023. In contrast, median early-stage size is up 39% YTD, suggesting that investors are still willing to place bets where they see strong early-stage opportunities. Two of the largest early-stage deals in Q2’24 went to Cylib and Aether Fuels. Both companies intend to use the funding to scale and support commercialization initiatives — goals that are generally communicated by later-stage companies.

• • $100M+ mega-rounds continue to trend down in Q2’24. Climate tech mega-rounds dropped from 17 in Q1’24 to 9 in Q2’24. The majority of Q2’24’s mega-round recipients are focused on scaling operations and achieving full-scale commercialization. For example, one of the quarter’s largest deals ($375M Series G) went to battery materials developer Sila, which plans to use the funding to ramp up silicon anode production.

Source: CB Insights — Sila Funding Insights

• Climate tech funding drops yet again in Asia. Climate tech startups in the region raised a total of $0.4B in Q2’24, down 33% QoQ and 89% YoY. China suffered the sharpest funding decline (-90% QoQ) among highlighted countries in the region. India and Japan watched funding fall by 28% and 57% QoQ, respectively.

More energy resources from CB insights

• 5 climate tech markets gaining momentum in 2024
• The grid tech market map: The companies tackling the growing need for reliable electricity
• The energy impact of generative AI: 3 technologies transforming the future of data centers
• Analyzing 15 oil & gas leaders’ tech priorities: Here’s where incumbents are buying, investing, and partnering
• Sodium-ion batteries are poised for a breakout moment — energy players should prepare
• Why energy giants should have green ammonia on their radar

The post State of Climate Tech Q2’24 Report appeared first on CB Insights Research.

Enter sodium-ion batteries.

They’re cheap to build, temperature-resilient, and could soon shake up the global energy storage market — which is projected to grow to $77B within the next 10 years.

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Humans will still play a crucial role — but instead of assembling parts or operating machinery, they will maintain robots and keep them running.

In these future factories, robots coordinate in unison, completing work automatically — without breaks, every hour of the day — to get products out the door. 

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Major players like BP and Shell are aiming to become net-zero emissions energy businesses by 2050, with Shell targeting a 50% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2016 levels.

These ambitious goals are driven in part by shifting regulatory frameworks. The EU, for instance, plans to require oil & gas companies to buy carbon credits to compensate for offshore activities, while in the US, the Inflation Reduction Act has incentivized sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production.

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While Nvidia initially developed its graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, these chips turned out to be ideal for powering AI tasks. Now, the company is focusing its efforts on providing the computing hardware — notably its A100 and H100 GPUs — and the software infrastructure required for developing generative AI applications.

Amid the generative AI rush, Nvidia has grown rapidly. In fact, it recently surpassed Microsoft and Apple to become the world’s most valuable company. To bolster its leadership position and keep ahead of AI computing competitors like AMD and Intel, Nvidia has forged relationships with companies across the AI landscape.

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